Sales of new cars in recent months, exceed the most optimistic forecasts, and even in the midst of the holiday season, the market is not slowing down. For the first time in many years, dealers are faced with a shortage of popular models, which are not always available in the desired color and configuration. What cars today lined up, and why manufacturers are in no hurry to increase the supply?
AVTOVAZ do not keep up with the demand
The Russian market is gradually recovering from the crisis, which has become the most protracted in its history. It would seem that the long-awaited increase in demand, and now the survivor of a dealers business should go to the mountain. However, some of them are faced with another problem — a shortage of cars, which is typical at least for the navigation trim levels. Of course, we are not talking about the system deficit, as it was in the best of times on the Russian automotive market when traded bursts, and the most popular foreign cars had to wait many months.
Among other models, the Lada dealers lack the vest with the standard multimediasystem other models Lada dealers lack the vest with the standard multimediasystem
As suggested by the consultant-analyst at Frost & Sullivan Ivan Kondratenko, a number of dealers popular brands in the mass segment was not ready for such growth and are not provided at the proper level the supply of cars that would satisfy the demand activated. Another reason may be that the market still have a cautious approach to inventory planning, when producers and dealers do not make too optimistic calculations for further recovery of demand and prefer to adapt to market conditions in real time.
Nevertheless, AVTOVAZ, whose sales are growing constantly for more than a year, still, apparently, can not cope with the increasing production of its popular models in accordance with dealer’s orders. According to industry participants, the reason for that suppliers of the plant that are not able to quickly increase the supply of components on the conveyor.
In the dealer centres Lada company “Terra Auto” especially feeling the shortage of cars of Vesta with the standard multimediasystem, Largus Cross and Icrea with a 1.8-liter engine. Customers who want to buy such machines in the right color and equipment, you have to wait up to a month. According to the Director of sales GK “Terra Auto” Igor badera, the shortage is due to the high popularity of these models with production limitations existing at the time of order.
“Over the past few months the demand for Lada have increased significantly. For example, ordering cars now often made two months before production date. Stocks of cars in warehouses also declined. However, to call the situation a deficit is possible only conditionally. Even if the buyer is considering several options for colors or trim, we always manage to find a suitable car from the more than 500 available cars, so the quality of service situation is not affected,” — said “driving.Russia” Igor Bader.
Creta sold “from wheels”
In the market of foreign cars has the longest queues lined up for crossover Hyundai Creta. And although the model is present on the market for exactly a year, the demand for the most popular SUV in Russia all that time exceeded supply. The fact that the plant Hyundai in Saint Petersburg, working at the limit of its capacity, and in addition to Crete on it produced two hit model — Hyundai Solaris and Kia Rio. While the Korean company at the time refused hatchback Solaris in order to free up capacity for the production of the new crossover.
The longest queues are lined for the crossover Hyundai Creta — depending on the configuration it will have to wait for up to several mesyatsami long queues lined up the crossover Hyundai Creta — depending on the configuration it will have to wait for up to several months
At the other most popular foreign cars of Russian Assembly of deficiency of cars at dealers today is not observed, reported “Behind the wheel.Of the Russian Federation” in the representative offices of foreign automakers. “We clearly are monitoring the need of dealers in cars, including considering a corporate holiday in our factory, and thanks to a fairly accurate forecasting of demand and the availability of warehouses to avoid deficit,” — said, for example, Director of public relations for Nissan in Russia, Roman Skolsky. In connection with the stabilization of the Russian car factory of Nissan with Oct plans to introduce a second shift and recruit new employees.
In Renault noted a high demand for crossovers Duster and Kaptur, and also the increased interest of customers to the new Koleos. The increasing demand for the Renault, coupled with the existing stock in some cases has little effect on the waiting times of cars, but they are “in any case, are reasonably”. As stated in the press service of the French brand, the company strives to maintain the stocks at dealers at 1.5 months of sales, and the flexible production schedule at the Russian plant Renault gives the opportunity to react quickly to market situation.
Russia cut the quota
But for sellers of imported models, the problem of shortage of cars may become highly relevant. In recent years, the headquarters of the automakers much cut quotas for the Russian market, which has ceased to be for them a priority. However, current sales volumes are still far from pre-crisis levels, but even with a further increase in demand for global adjustment of delivery plans will take time. According to market participants, the jump in prices for scarce models should not be, because non-localized model of the already significantly increased in recent years.
As noted by General Director of “Autospeccentre Kia Capital” Alexey Potapov, the end of 2016, showed the failures of some of the automakers in the formation of quotas for the Russian market, so the restructuring plans of manufacturers is now. “The global gap in the Russian market yet does not threaten, and therefore, unplanned prices will not rise. Rather, it may be due to the recent economic crisis and not due to problems with the supply of cars”, — the expert believes.
At the moment, for example, there is a deficit of compact SUV Suzuki Jimny, the waiting period which can be 4-5 months. As explained in the press service of “Suzuki motors Rus”, this is because the limited production capacity at the plant in Japan, but in General, the Russian office of Suzuki responds flexibly to changes in market demand and in the case of growth increases the order quantity from the manufacturer.
Waiting compact SUV Suzuki Jimny customer can languish 4-5 mesyacev waiting for a compact SUV Suzuki Jimny customer can languish for 4-5 months
“Problems with availability of some trim from Subaru no. We are able to plan the delivery of vehicles from Japan according to the demand. Recently there was a slight delay in delivery of machines which are designed longer than usual at customs. But now the issue is resolved, and Subaru put in a planned mode”, — said General Director of “Subaru Motor” Yoshiki Kishimoto.
While the lion’s share of sales in the Russian market comes from local production, the demand for which in many ways are pushing various programs of state support, says Ivan Kondratenko. It is not surprising that in recent years, the recession of quotas on imported cars were reduced, because they were not competitive from price point of view. “I don’t think until at least next year, the automakers need to radically revise the plans to import to Russia. You must wait for the stabilization of growth in demand, and also to see how the reduction in state support programmes will affect the market, which can probably again be in the red in the absence of flexible financing programs. The decisions of the Russian government in the sphere of support of the market in 2018 will depend on future growth or just another fall”, — says the expert.
Abnormal sales boom
Meanwhile, the Russian car plants in July-August, planning to stop its production lines for the summer holidays. Although this period traditionally has a seasonal decline in market demand, nearly a 20 percent increase in sales of new cars in July, evidence of increased buyer activity. As a result, the dealers mass brands already experiencing a shortage of cars available, which, however, the fall needs to be remedied.
A surge of sales on the market unsuccessfully coincided with the planned summer stop conveyors some avtoproizvoditelyam sales on the market unsuccessfully coincided with the planned summer stop of conveyors of some brands
So, due to the past corporate vacations at the production sites of the Volkswagen Group Rus currently observed, in particular, a slight deficiency of Skoda Rapid and Octavia, although their production has been revived and cars began arriving in dealerships. The average waiting time for the ordered cars is two to three months. “Because of the factory holidays, we knew in advance we were able successfully to plan for it. At the same time, increased demand in may-June and July slightly “dried” our warehouses. Nevertheless, we are confident that by the end of August the situation with warehouses will begin to improve. The ratio of the optimal stock of cars from dealers typically ranges from half to two, the amount depends on the monthly plan of sales, the timing of production and delivery of specific models. The production site of the brand in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod are now working in normal mode, promptly following the opportunities to increase sales in those segments where our presence. The current increase in the total market necessarily reflected in the planning of the brand”, — says head of sales Department of Skoda Auto Russia Alexey Pochechuyev.
Currently, from 24 July to 13 August, do not work AVTOVAZ and Izhevsk plant, but the shipment of cars assembled to a corporate holiday, continues. GM-AVTOVAZ, which went on summer vacation at the same time, also performs scheduled shipment to dealers in accordance with their applications. As assured in a press-service of the joint venture, is currently at the dealership warehouses stock of Chevrolet Niva is sufficient to provide the existing demand.
According to Igor badera, the optimum is considered to be the stock exceeding the sales plan in 1,2–1,5 times. Now the majority of Lada dealers warehouse is roughly equivalent to the sales plan. The company “Terra Auto” expect that the most difficult situation with the presence of cars will have at the end of a corporate holiday. The reason is the period extending from the start of the build up to the moment of receiving the car dealer, he is 7-10 days.
Where will go the market?
“The lack of suspension kits from dealers has escalated in part due to the fact that many plants went on scheduled annual vacation, when there is no possibility at once to increase the supply. After the resumption of the pipelines, the deficit is likely to stop, but I don’t think the car manufacturers need to introduce additional shifts and to dramatically increase production volumes. The need to carefully track the increase in sales and meet the needs without major revision of the plans, which could lead to difficulties in the distribution in a situation of slow recovery of the market,” warns Ivan Kondratenko.
Indeed, the Russian car market may further slow the rate of growth given the higher base in the second half of last year. By the end of 2017, Frost & Sullivan expect sales growth from 1.42 million to 1.5 million vehicles, or 4%. According to optimistic forecasts, by 2023 the sales of cars in our country will increase to 2.6 million units with an annual growth rate of 9%. The conservative scenario envisages stabilisation of the Russian car market at the current frontiers of 1.5 million units, and moderate — growth to 1.6 million vehicles (+2% per year).
According to Alexey Potapov, the Russian car market is on the rise, and in the face of increasing demand is quite natural that the inventory of cars for sale at dealers need to grow. However, at the moment almost all corporations meet the needs of the Russian market and the introduction of extra shifts on the production is not necessary. The growth of demand has been noted for mass segment cars, while the implementation of some premium brands are still below average market performance. “Sales of mass segment cars stimulate, in particular, government subsidies of domestic industry. So it is for Russian cars may be a shortage. If the queue still occurs, dealer can offer the customer to conclude a contract, to pay the initial fee and just to get your car in due time. You can take a turn for free, however, in this case guarantee that the buyer will receive your car on time, do not exist,” — he concluded.
Photo: “Behind the wheel” and manufacturers
Told you not to do: he returned to Russia turns to avtomobilestroiteli not borrow: he had a queue of cars