Before the New year the Russian car factories have started early to stop the conveyor, although the demand in the market, it would seem, is growing. Dealers to this twist of fate ready? And whether businesses are afraid of overproduction next year, when most of the state programs of support will be canceled?
Stocks for the winter
Sales of Lada cars is growing steadily and now 1.5 years, but AVTOVAZ before the Christmas holidays has introduced additional days of downtime at the production sites. Earlier, on December 19, was stopped by the B0 line, which produced the platform of model Lada XRAY and Largus, Renault Logan and Sandero, Nissan Almera. From December 22 to metering conveyor for the Assembly of Lada 4×4 SUVs and sedans Priora. Last year cars Kalina and Grants, as well as the platform Datsun on—DO and mi—DO was released on 27 December, according to the order of the President of AVTOVAZ on the work of the plant in December, a copy of which is at the disposal of “Interfax”.
AVTOVAZ declined to comment on the working schedule of the enterprise, on the grounds that this is internal information of the company. Thus in a press-service of the plant “Behind the wheel.Russia” has assured that in the new year the dealer network will be provided with the necessary volume of cars.
“Annual production stoppages required for maintenance of equipment. Dealers always warned about them in advance, and the downtime of the conveyor belt they will get collected earlier cars in the storage areas of the plant,” confirms Director of sales Lada in GC “Terra-Avto” Igor Bader. According to him, production is scheduled in such a way as to prevent the appearance of large remnants “of last year’s cars”.
The change of residence
Meanwhile, in the upcoming new year holidays AVTOVAZ will transfer production of liftback Lada Granta from Izhevsk automobile plant in Togliatti, which produced sedan of this model. Release liftbek AVTOVAZ planned to start in February 2018. In this regard, gap can be formed pyatidverok Granta in the coming months, so those wishing to become owners of the models the dealers suggest to hurry with the purchase, so take advantage of the wide choice of colors and trim levels.
In turn, the relocation of liftback Lada Granta in Togliatti will allow Izhevsk automobile plant to free up capacity to increase production flagship model Lada Vesta, which became the first bestseller of the brand. In many respects it became possible due to enter the market wagon Lada Vesta and off-road SW version SW Vesta Cross. New items caused high demand, which is AVTOVAZ, it seems, was not ready. In the showrooms of some dealers were only samples, but the queue for these models lined up for the next few months.
In addition, in 2018 at the Izhevsk automobile plant to begin production of two new modifications of Lada Vesta. According to sources “Interfax”, it will be off-road version of the sedan, which will receive a special kit, increased ground clearance and larger wheels and a sports version of the model.
Closed for prevention
It is worth noting that AVTOVAZ is not the only automobile, whose workers went to rest before the whole country. So, from the 25th of December the annual new year’s vacation began at the Moscow plant Renault, who will return to work on January 9. As stated by the “Behind the wheel.Of the Russian Federation” in a press-service of the company, inventory dealers exceed monthly sales that allows you to provide a sufficient number of cars in stock.
At the same time will not release the car company “Mazda Sollers” in the last working week before Christmas break here is the planned maintenance of the equipment.
Ulyanovsk automobile plant in January for two weeks to extend the new year holidays to upgrade lines, quality audit and tests, as well as the annual inventories and complex maintenance and repair works. As reported by “Behind the wheel.Of the Russian Federation” in a press-service Oise, in connection with the planned suspension of production has been increased deliveries of cars in December 2017. In particular, dealers are provided in the required number of SUVs UAZ Patriot, for which demand in recent months is growing. But the UAZ Pickup in September became the sales leader in its segment, there is a slight deficiency, but by February 2018, the plant plans to equalize the situation.
Meanwhile, GM—AVTOVAZ, Avtotor, the St. Petersburg factories of Nissan and Hyundai additional days of downtime do not plan and in accordance with the approved public holidays from 30 December to 8 January inclusive. This “Behind the wheel.Of the Russian Federation” have informed in a press-service companies, noting that stopping production at the period of new year holidays will not affect the availability of required number of vehicles at dealers.
According to the Director of PwC Victoria Sinichkina, as a rule, the demand in postnovogodny period, as well as during the summer holidays, is the most moderate, which is why the planned shutdown usually produce at this time. During the formation of schedules of production of these stops shall be coordinated in advance, and as a result they do not have any significant negative impact on sales or the performance of obligations to the dealers.
In turn, consultant-analyst at Frost & Sullivan Ivan Kondratenko noted that, in recent practice downtime was used by Russian manufacturers to prevent a potential oversupply when the market situation remained uncertain, and the demand was not sustainable. “In 2017, when the market stabilized and began to rise, some automakers nonetheless began to leave early for winter break, but most of them continue to operate without interruption until the New year. I don’t think we can expect significant problems with the availability of cars at the beginning of next year. The market at this time will slow down somewhat in the strength of the seasonal decline in purchasing activity and eliminating many of the state programs of support of demand”, — the expert predicts.
Foreigners will help us
Meanwhile in the past year, the Russian automotive industry began to emerge from the crisis, following the market demand increasing the production of cars for the first time in five years. According to “ASM-Holding”, at the end of 2017 with pipelines of our country will come down to 1.33 million vehicles — 18% more than last year. In this case, the market will grow even to a lesser extent, slightly more than 10%. Good support to enterprises provided export for 10 months of 2017, according to the Federal customs service of Russia increased by 28%, although their share in the total production remains small — less than 10%. In these circumstances, some Russian automakers such as AVTOVAZ, Nissan and Ford Sollers, returned to full work schedule, and to introduce an additional production shift, which started accepting workers.
In the past year the range of cars assembled in Russia has increased. For example, among the novelties of “Avtotor” — the new Kia Picanto to the premium sedan Genesis G80. Skoda has launched in Russia the production of the new Rapid and Octavia bestsellers, and in 2018 will begin production of the SUV Kodiaq. At the company Mazda Sollers JV launched Assembly of the crossover Mazda CX-5 new generation. Kaluga “PSMA Rus” started the production of restyling of a sedan Peugeot 408 and returned to the conveyor SUV Mitsubishi Pajero Sport. St. Petersburg plant Hyundai started production of the sedan Hyundai Solaris and Kia Rio new generation, and the latest model has also become available in a new version — cross-hatchback Rio X—line. In addition, the Izhevsk automobile plant began production wagon Lada Vesta SW.
However, 2017 is not without losses for the Russian automobile industry. So, the Kaluga conveyor left Volkswagen SUV Touareg, thus freeing a capacity for the Assembly of Audi models. And Nissan due to low demand stopped the production in Russia of the Sentra sedan and Pathfinder crossover, focusing on promotion on the Russian market crossover Qashqai, X-Trail and Murano, which are produced at the plant in St. Petersburg.
As noted by Ivan Kondratenko, many new or returned models in the Russian market belong to the SUV segment, which is actively developing and has further growth potential. The tendency to the expansion of the lineups of automakers in Russia will depend on the potential growth of the market in 2018. In the case of re-recession of sales of players will have to reconsider the policy of production, concentrating on the most popular models.
Despite the increase in the production capacity of factories in our country today are loaded only by 40%. It is significant that compared to pre-crisis 2012 the current production volume is lower by almost a third. And this despite the fact that during the crisis in the Russian market the share of cars of local production rose to a record 82%. For comparison, the best for the Russian automobile industry 2012, when there were about 2 million passenger cars, on the products of domestic enterprises accounted for 64% of all sales. According to the forecast of PwC, in subsequent years it is expected further recovery of production volumes, which by 2021 could reach 1.8 million vehicles in the absence of external shocks. However, even in this case, the download of the local factories will not reach 60%, which is insufficient for their effective work.
At the same time, the relative stabilization of oil prices and the ruble exchange rate create conditions for an increase in the import of cars whose sales over the next three to five years may show a slight increase, commensurate with the growth of the overall passenger car sales in the country. However, the achievement of the market share of imported cars on pre-crisis level of 30%, according to PwC, it is unlikely in the current regulatory environment, when the Russian authorities consistently pursue a policy aimed at supporting local manufacturers.
As noted by the Deputy Director of analytical Department of company “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova, the share of domestic cars on the Russian market increased during the crisis not so much due to the growth in demand for products of domestic enterprises, many at the expense of reducing the share of imported cars after the collapse of the ruble. Due to the low demand, the majority of Russian plants operate with a capacity and have low profitability. A strong competition between domestic producers and working in Russia, collectors cars will be more negative pressure.
In turn, General Director of “Autospeccentre KIA Kashirka” Sergey Sarnowski considers that in conditions when the download of the Russian car will not exceed 60%, import duties will be reduced and the state program of stimulation of demand will cease, foreign automakers will think about the advisability of continuing work in our country. As a result, the number of players, who localized their production in Russia could be reduced at the expense of the less profitable projects. The expert predicts growth of imports and brands with a high proportion of the local Assembly.
Photo: depositphotos.com and Alexander Chizhenok/inter/TASSrequest Stop: why in the car such long holidays?Request stop: why in the car such long holidays?