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Russian car market: the price increase will not stop

Four years after the fall of the Russian car market finally went up. The crisis is over? There are doubts…

Sales of new cars in Russia declined for four consecutive years — from 2013 to 2016. What do you mean last year, Russians bought 1 595 737 cars, which is 11.9% more than in 2016. It is a success. But relatively prosperous 2012, when it sold 2.94 million cars – a modest achievement. Only every hundredth citizen of the country purchased the car. In Russia was approximately 42 million passenger cars — is out for the year has been updated less than 4%. And the average age of passenger cars in Russia reached twelve and a half years. A third of our cars in over 15 years!

Vintage report

In fat 2012 more than 100 thousand cars sold nine brands, and Skoda almost became the tenth since came close to that mark. Now a 100‑thousand boundary crossed only four. The key to success is a good set of budget models and crossovers (including the prefix “pseudo”).

*According to the AEB. **LCV sales are included in total sales.

In the company’s most successful loser looks Hyundai: sales increased by only 9%, whereas the nearest competitor — by 17-22%, which is much higher than the average market. Very nice older Volkswagen, Ford, Mazda and Datsun. Impressive progress Mitsubishi (+ 45%), but in the current situation, this result only reflects the depth of the abyss into which had fallen the sale of cars of this brand in previous years.

Ravon altogether shocking growth rate: 733%! The reason is simple: in 2016, the young Uzbek brand was just comfortable on the market, so sales have been meager. And Daewoo cars in the last full year of their presence in the Russian market it was sold 20,5 thousand.

Interesting observation: while all rolled down, UAZ, Lexus and Porsche has shown a positive trend or a minor fall. As soon as the market changed direction, these brands, in contrast, got worse. The Ulyanovsk car sales dipped by 15%. The most significant relative fall — the hunter and cargo: more than 50%. But in absolute terms more than any other lost Patriot (minus 3,5 thousand cars) and the ancient “loaf” and “tadpoles” (minus 2.5 thousand cars). Will be able to help Uazu lorry Pro? For the last quarter of the year, the plant reported sold 812 Pro. The rookie is gaining momentum, but still: Gazelle during this same period, sold 20 times more.

*According to the AEB.

A lot of our market brands, which have most of the box office make one or two models. This, in particular, Datsun (on-DO and mi-DO), Honda (CR-V and Pilot), Mazda (CX‑5 and 6), Mitsubishi (the Outlander and Pajero Sport), Subaru (Forester and Outback) and Suzuki (Vitara and SX4). And in all cases the first of these machines takes away the lion’s share of buyers. The echo of the crisis and the new reality: in good times the line was much more diverse.

The depletion premium

In 2015-2016 premium brands also suffering from crisis, but to a lesser degree. In 2015, the mass market demand decreased by 37%, and expensive — only 23%. Similar performance a year later was minus 12.2% and minus 7.2%. In 2017 sales of “consumer goods” increased by 13.6%, and “elite” rose only 0.6%. The share premium on the market over the past three years a minimum of 9.3%.

*According to the AEB.

Of the major players on a positive note finished the year only BMW (+ 9%). Mercedes-Benz remained “at their” Audi serious decline (- 18%). In the lines of Audi and BMW sales leaders is the same — large crossovers Q7 and X5/X6. Mercedes GLS old forward missed GLC/GLC Coupe and E‑class. The Bavarians are celebrating not only the growth of sales of their “five” bypassed “eshku”sedan (4919 machines vs 4833), and the third series before ahead of With class. For a complete happiness is not enough excellence in the luxury segment, but the S‑class is unwavering.

With the release of crossover F‑Pace sales of Jaguars in Russia in 2016 has more than doubled. The result 2017 — modest nevertheless plus 5%. Demand for all models decreased, and General statistics pulled F‑Pace. In the coming year will begin selling a compact crossover E‑Pace — you can wait for the next surge of consumer interest. Related to Land Rover does not boast: Discovery 5 and a fundamentally new Velar did not save mark (- 3%). In 2018, the pulling demand is called the redesigned Range Rover and Range Rover Sport. The new Evoque will enter the fray only in 2019.

Top model

Since 2012 the list of the 25 most popular machines has undergone serious changes: there were ten new names. Fall down wazowski Oldies. From the list of the best gone prior from 17 th to 23rd place moved for the year Kalina. The demand for “classical” Field has grown, but this has not helped her to hold the position: 16th line against 13 a year earlier.

*Models are not present in the adjacent column. **According to the AEB.

Progress beginners huge. XRAY disperse is 67% better than in 2016, Vesta — 40%. XRAY entered the top ten market leaders, Vesta — the top three! And Vesta has reached such a result in fact, without the help of generalists: they appeared only in the second half of autumn, in 2017 did about 5.5 thousand units. Its contribution in full effect they will make in 2018: it is expected to make 40 thousand cars SW/SW Cross. The West has all the chances to compete for first place in the rating.

However, it is not going to surrender and Grant. Its sales grew by almost 7%, and in the middle of the year demand should spur restyling. This year Grant and Viburnum will be combined into one family by the name of Grant. And the hatchback and wagon Kalina is, if you rely on sales for 2017, 20 thousand cars! The struggle for leadership intensifies.

In 2016, Hyundai Solaris became the first foreign car that cost annual sales of Lada. But with the release in early 2017 second generation machines something went wrong. If in 2016 most months edition of Solaris did not fall below 7.5 thousand copies in the past year, this goal he reached only once. The blame should be Cretu: it is slightly more expensive and looks more solid. Again, the crossover. In the last quarter of the year consistently avoided Creta Solaris on monthly sales.

There is another view: from Solaris turned away because of the price increase. However, the nearest relative and rival Kia Rio after the change of generation in the summer of 2017 and the inevitable rise in price worse be sold did not. So, the reason is not only the pricing policy. In addition, Rio appeared Pseudorasbora package contents X-Line. So the top three is inevitable tense struggle.

Note also the explosive growth of sales of Hyundai crossovers Creta (expected) and Volkswagen Tiguan (sudden). “German” in its segment ate everyone except Toyota: RAV4 remained on top at the end of the year, although they lost the Tiguan in December.

*Sedan. **According to the AEB.

Why wait?

The Association of European businesses (AEB) gave a forecast for the next 12 months even in the most difficult for the Russian automotive market. And now the stupor: “We have nothing to say”, – said at the final press conference Joerg Schreiber, head of the automobile manufacturers Committee of the AEB. According to him, in October, all agreed in opinion that in 2018, the increase will be 5-10%, but to publish such a forecast of the AEB decided not to. And for several reasons.

Real incomes are declining. The share of new cars sold on credit has reached 50%. Borrowing rates are down, but not all Russians have an adequate supply of financial strength for timely repayment of the loan.

*According to the AEB.

Since the collapse of the ruble has been more than three years, but rising prices of cars does not stop. From 16 December to 15 January, two dozen manufacturers have copied price lists in the upward direction. According to our data, some brands and models prices until the end of the year may jump by 10-15%.

From January 1, the excise tax on vehicles with engine capacity 301-400 HP increased by 240-319 thousand rubles, the machine capacity 401-500 HP – 337-420 thousand, and those that are more powerful than 500 HP, at 442 thousand. More democratic models crushed by the increase in the recycling fee. At the time of delivery of the material the new rates have not yet been approved, but are discussing the dimensions are as follows: for machines with an engine capacity of from one to two liters of the car recycling fee will increase by 90%, from 2 to 3 liters for 49% in the segment of GAZelle — 52%, in the segment of KAMAZ — 130%.

Such measures may finally bury import mass models (local producers receive subsidies) and lead to a serious increase in prices in the premium segment. But expensive cars and without having considerably added to the price. For example, the Mercedes-Benz CLA 200 was worth in the summer of 2014 of 1.39 million rubles, and at the end of 2017 2.21 million. And although our market has long been running the show locally assembled cars, this tax policy will lead to another loss of range.

Add attachments to the certification of the system ERA-GLONASS (a lot of cars are still sold without it, for old cu Tr) and transition to electronic title. The part of the consumer discourage dealers from the decline of state support for automotive industry: on target programs to stimulate demand in 2018 of the budget is allocated 16 billion rubles, as against 27.5 billion a year earlier. What can cause such a reduction, prompt statistics of AVTOVAZ in the past year on state programs sold 45% of the cars Lada! And let’s not forget about antiautomorphism active policy of the Moscow authorities, which enjoy catch regions.

So positive not very many. But there is hope that once the pent-up demand and availability of credit will allow the market to continue the growth. According to our forecasts, during the year, sales will grow by about 5%. Up to three million record of 2012 is still very far away. Please be patient — we are not the first.

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