What are the causes of the fall of the market in November and what will happen next? The opinions of the main operators

According to our source, the sale in Ukraine of new cars in November were less than in October and in November 2016. What is the reason, does our market stagnation, and how some brands managed to increase sales on the background of General downturn, our source told the leading operators.What caused the decline of sales in November? Is this the beginning of the next stagnation in our market? Oddly enough, the answer to this question, the operators were almost unanimous.

The Ukrainian market has stopped growing

According to the head of the company “Renault Ukraine” Yana Minenko, a key influence on the decline of the market has had a growing share of “avtonomerov” in the Park. According to the DFS of them were brought 1.8 million over the last 3 years and more than 800 thousand in 2017. And we see on the roads is not only a budget car “euromarch”, but premium.

I would also like to note that for 236 thousand cars on the “euromarch” has recorded a violation of the terms transit.

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But you also need to take into account, says Ms. Minenko, the factor of high market in November-December 2016. For example, if the average market of passenger and commercial cars in 10 months of 2016 amounted to 5 400 cars, in 2017 over the same period, the average market was almost 7 thousand in November and December of 2016, the market was more than 8 thousand cars.

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General Director of “Eurocar” Marina Yakovleva told our source that in her opinion, currently on the market globally is influenced by three main factors: the acceleration of the devaluation of the hryvnia, the liberalization of the legislation concerning the import of used cars and complicity at the state level and the increasing problem of imported cars on avtonomera. Despite the reduction in real incomes, all three of these factors inhibit the market, said Mrs. Yakovleva.

The Director of the Department of operational sales management “MMC Ukraine” (Mitsubishi) Sergey baydachny links the drop in sales with a decrease of registrations of so-called “Dieselgate” cars. But also with overly high rate of sales in November 2016, which at that time was associated with the beginning of currency fluctuations in the middle of the month.

General Director of “AutoCapital” company, Yaroslav Penetration believes that the market in 2017 is still too small and its change you can get any local action. In his opinion, there is no sense to draw any conclusions in the framework of the month. You need to look at the result of the Dec.

According to the Director for marketing of Group of companies “AIS” Sergey Borovik reasons for the decrease of sales were the devaluation, the increase in formal b/y imports, and the growth of informal b/a import (on avtonomera).

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As for stagnation, Mrs. Yakovlev thinks about the stagnation of early to say, but the slowdown in the growth of the market will be. Any situation of instability, economic, political, regulatory, may affect the slowdown in market growth, especially in the Ukraine, where over the last 10 years the country’s economy was shaken by 2 major crises.

Sergey Borovik also believes that this is not stagnation, but the market growth rate will be significantly reduced.

Sergiy Baydachnyy told our source that in his opinion, this is not the beginning of stagnation. But rather an indicator of an immature market that is emerging from the crisis and does not show stability either in decline or in growth.

On the question of stagnation, Ms. Minenko is difficult to answer. The market has growth potential, she said, but evaluate what will be the future impact of “avtonomerov” on the dynamics we can’t.

Yaroslav Penetration remains optimistic and expects growth in sales in 2018. At the same time, the political and economic situation in the country unstable, which may be reflected in the dynamics of market development.

Interestingly, despite the decline in sales, some brands have managed to build up and overtake competitors, rising in the ranking of sales of our source. What you see the reasons for this spurt in November operators?

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Yana Minenko believes that the Renault cars managed to climb 1 position in November to take 2nd place in the overall ranking of sales, primarily due to the integrated approach and teamwork. Here and an offer winter tires as a gift for Duster/Logan/Sandero; and good credit 0% for 3 years on the juke/Captur and Megane; and the differentiated discounts from 2% to 11% on the Megane, Captur, Kadjar and commercial range depending on the model. And of course, thanks to the availability of resources in the warehouse, advertising campaigns and productive work of the official dealer network.

According to Marina Yakovleva, the Skoda brand managed to climb one position in November to take the third spot in the overall standings, thanks to the Octavia model, which, of course, is the core of the brand. However Kodiaq Superb and substantially increased its capacity this year. The penetration of the SUV segment, whose share in the market structure of over 50%, with the new Kodiaq was an additional impetus to the growth of market share for Skoda. Kodiaq quickly rushed to market, and ranked second in his class. All quotas this year were sold in the month of August. Also, in the fourth quarter significantly increased sales of the Superb, which supported sales growth in General.

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As already mentioned our source, in the TOP 10 of the Ukrainian automobile market includes two premium brand. One of them is Mercedes-Benz. The cars of this brand rose by 3 positions and was ranked in the ranking of sales of our source 10. According to Mr. the burned-on food, it is the result of effort. This was achieved thanks to the proper set of measures to stimulate sales, but also thanks to the coordinated work of dealerships.

Mitsubishi cars in November rose 1 position and took in the overall sales ranking 15th place. Sergiy Baydachnyy believes that it happened due to the fact that a competitive product was in stock in the warehouses of dealers there was an active advertising support and was an interesting promotional offer on the flagship model of Pajero Sport and Outlander.

According to Sergey Borovik sales of key brands in the portfolio of “AIS” and sales of “AIS” as a whole also increased substantially compared to last year. It happened due to:
– High level of customer service as the sale and while servicing.
– Brand financial products (credit, leasing).
– Branded the program “trade-in with up to 5%”.
– New brands in company portfolio.
– Active promotion – advertising and PR.

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What is the forecast for the current year, taking into account the incident of slowdown in our market? Yana Minenko has lowered the forecast of sales for the year, and sales for December. Despite the fact that in “Renault Ukraine” satisfied with their market share in November (since they were ahead), here narrowly missed the target sales volume in units.

The plan for December was slightly decreased in “MMC Ukraine”.

Yaroslav Penetration was reported by our source that the sales decline in November did not affect the plans and forecasts “Avtokapital”.

Has not changed the plans and in the Group of companies “AIS”.

Marina Yakovleva told our source that it is already clear that the new car market this year will not reach the forecasted volumes in 85-90 thousand, however, with regard to the achievement of the objectives for the sale of Skoda, they will be executed.

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