Why the Ukrainian car market growth slowed? The opinions of the main operators

Growth rates of Ukrainian car market in the second half declined slightly. The reasons for this slowdown and the forecasts for the near future, our source told the leading domestic operators.
The opinions of the operators were divided. Some believe that the growth rate of the market has fallen, indeed, and argue it. For others, the recession has not happened. Just, in comparison with September, in October sold less. Or said individual factors of importers.
Whatever it was, but according to our source, it was implemented 7413 new cars. This is 26.8% more than a year ago, but 2.9% less than in September.

Import of used cars is catching up and is ahead of sales of new
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Fell a market?

As reported by our source in the press service of UkrAVTO Corporation, the fall in the market of new passenger cars was influenced by the emergence of (and expectation of future supply) of large quantities of cars of the Volkswagen group with diesel engines at discount prices. Namely the Audi A3 and VW Golf, whose sales for the last 2 months amounted to 486 pieces and 600 pieces respectively. Bringing the Audi brand took in October, 5th place, up from 14th at the end of 2016, and the Volkswagen brand in September-October was able to beat Renault to take 2nd place. In addition, the growth of the new car market is holding back a significant increase in imports of used cars (over 10 months. 2017 – cars – in 4.5 times, LCV 2.2-fold, trucks – 3.3 times more) and imported cars on avtonomera.

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In the company Grand automotive (Maserati, Jeep), among the reasons for the slowdown in the market is called the reduction of solvency of the population, the import of used cars with customs clearance at a reduced excise duties, the import of cars on avtonomera, the growth of the dollar/Euro against the hryvnia, as well as the draft law on the liberalisation of the market of used cars.

The company AutoCapital (Mercedes-Benz, smart), our source reported that the global factors affecting the slowdown in market growth, first of all, the constant currency fluctuations, the decline in the purchasing power of the population as a whole, the high cost of fuel, lack of stimulating demand programs on autocrediting. As well as unstable political and economic situation in the country.

Such allegations do not agree, the Director for marketing of Group of companies “AIS” Sergey Borovik. He believes that the results of sales in the fall of 2017 are within the forecast values. As it should be, for values of the 1st half of 2017

The percentage of growth to the same half of last year below, as they have already high base for comparison. The small drop in sales of October to September was impacted by the devaluation. Also, every month growing influence of the b/y imports, said Mr. Borovik.

According to the Director of the Department of operational sales management “MMC Ukraine” (Mitsubishi) Sergey Baydachny, the slowdown itself was not. Mr. baydachny believes that rather was too sharp jump in September, in connection with the growth rate of the national currency.

The head of government “Reno Ukraine” Jan Minenko told our source that the RENAULT brand the decline caused only temporary nuances of mixed models in stock.

None of the operators described the reason for the slowdown of market saturation. Even despite the fact that the growth in sales continues for quite some time. When, in their opinion, there will be saturation of the domestic market and will cease to grow sales?

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When there will be market saturation?
In a press-service of the Corporation “UkrAVTO” our source reported that in their opinion, the Ukrainian market is far from saturation. The coefficient of motorization in 2016 was 178 cars per 1,000 people, despite the fact that in the developed countries of Europe he reaches 500-600 cars per 1000. Also, there is the aging of the fleet in connection with the growth of imports of used cars: if in 2001 the average age of passenger cars in the country accounted for 17.6 years, on 1.01.2017 – for 21 years. Therefore, before saturation is still very far away.

In the company “AutoCapital” is also full of optimism. Point here is that at the moment in Ukraine is the lowest in Europe, the provision of cars per 1000 persons of the population. So the market has room to grow. But its growth rate depend on the factors mentioned above.

More specific figures were announced in the company Grand automotive (Maserati, Jeep). According to them, the saturation of the domestic market will be in 3-5 years.

Sergey baydachny also sure that saturate our market reach by far not soon. Although, he said the definition of “saturation” is pretty relative, given the fact that over the past few years the market has passed two significant crisis.

As reported by our source Yana Minenko, the potential of our market when a stable situation is 300-350 thousand new cars a year. Therefore, her expectations for the coming years is positive.

And apparently the positive is the basic mood, which today is the Ukrainian automobile market. Accordingly, there is real reason to hope that the forecasts of the operators are met and in 2018, our market will continue to rise.

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